Why I'm Accumulating Microsoft

Listening to the chart

Gigantes.

There’s a saying on Wall Street often attributed to Charlie Munger:

If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks on the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time. The problem is, few human beings have that kind of discipline.

I don’t know if Munger actually said it, but regardless I believe the idea is a useful indicator.

Why am I bringing this up today?

Because Microsoft, which is about as high quality as it gets, is currently trading below its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). See the chart below (log scale).

The original idea usually refers to the Simple Moving Average (SMA), but I find the EMA more useful for tickers with exponential growth like Microsoft and tech in general.

Looking at the chart, had you bought and held below the EMA, you would be sitting on quite an interesting profit: from the $30s to almost $400.

Today, Microsoft is trading again below its 200-week EMA. I believe the chart is telling us something, and I’m reading two more bullish indicators:

First, we seem to be near what could be the lower support zone of the broadening wedge pattern we are currently developing:

Once again, note the 200-weekly EMA above the current price.

The second indicator is volume. Last Friday, 6/26/26, Microsoft had one of the highest-volume trading days in recent memory, closing with a green candle.

In my playbook, these indicators support the possibility that this area may be acting as a support zone.

So I’ll cut to the chase.

I’m bullish on Microsoft, and this is the kind of area where I’m comfortable accumulating over time. Short-term, the stock can go in any direction. This is not a swing trade. This is long-term accumulation on a high-quality stock I already own in my personal portfolio.

Now, mixing it with my strategy, where I capture premium via short options, mostly calls, on a risk-adjusted portion of the position, makes it even more appealing.

Stepping away from the chart for a second, I’m not convinced by the idea that Microsoft gets fully disrupted by the bots.

Quite the opposite. I see the bots as a growth force for Microsoft. Yes, Microsoft doesn’t have the best software, but it is Microsoft. It may be easier to escape the most sophisticated form of governmental intelligence than to escape the enterprise software domain of Microsoft.

It is just Microsoft, and that matters.

So, given the technical read and how I see the business for what it is, I like the stock here.

Juan